Whither Russia?

There's an interesting and at the same time terrifying op-ed in the WSJ today by Garry Kasparov (yes, that Garry Kasparov). Mr. Kasparov has contributed to the WSJ a number of times about the state of post-communist Russia.

I'm as guilty as most Americans in forgetting about Russia now that the cold war is over. Mr. Kasparov's editorials give me pause and make me wonder if we're all in the midst of a colossal international blunder. Whether you subscribe to Margaret Thatcher's view that "Ronald Reagan won the cold war without firing a shot," (okay, guilty :-), or the view some of my liberal minded friends take that the U.S.S.R simply collapsed under its own weight (yeah right), no one can deny that the cold war was an undertaking that pulled in the entire world. Ronald Reagan dismissed Detente and pushed through his vision that communism could be beaten. He won us the war, but have we now failed him by not properly nurturing and protecting the "win?"

The United States and the world failed to learn its lesson after World War I and punished Germany by extracting reparations from that country-- virtually tee-ing up the rise of the Third Reich and Adolf Hitler. The U.S. learned from that, and in the aftermath of the second World War constructed the Marshall Plan to prevent a repeat of the Nazis. That was largely a success. Germany, as well as Japan went on to become two of the most productive economies in the world.

However, because the cold war wasn't a "hot" war with a defined front line (admittedly unfairly discounting the pain and anguish of Afghanistan, El Salvador, etc.) I think most Americans tend to think the job is over. Certainly we've put billions of dollars into Russia in the form of aid since the break up of the U.S.S.R., but did we drop the ball along the way? It's not as straight forward as imposing our form of democracy on that country (now countries) , but did we pass up a chance to give them a the full "bear hug" of capitalism and democracy (pun intended ;-).

Mr. Kasparov's warning should be heeded by the U.S. immediately. One of the pillars of democracy, the rule of law, is almost non-existent in Russia. According to Mr. Kasparov, " the Russian court system currently boasts a conviction rate of over 99%." That can't be right.

Certainly September 11th has shifted the U.S. and the world's focus to radical fundamentalism. This is a real and present danger and needs to be confronted. At the same time, as the world's lone super power, the U.S. has a responsibility to engage Russia as a topic that is "very important, not yet urgent" before it becomes that way. As Mr. Kasparov points out, " The consequences of this transformation may only seem relevant to Russians today, but a Russia with a disintegrating economy and no respect for the rule of law will soon make our problems yours. "