Dell's lost Mojo

I despise short-term thinking. I certainly can't say that I have never been guilty of it (who hasn't) but it doesn't stop me from calling it out in others....

An article appeared in Barron's this week entitled " Time to Admit It: Dell's Lost Its Mojo." (Sub required). A basic premise of the article is that Dell still rules the roost in U.S. PC sales, but that the Dell sell-direct model is not translating in overseas markets. "In the hottest markets, China and India, buyers prefer to play with a machine before buying. "

Well this seems perfectly logical. Haven't been to India; have not spent a lot of time in Beijing (zero), but I get the strong feeling that the PC market in these countries is very nascent. Furthermore, the article continues, ""The PC business is no longer a growth market, for Dell or for anyone else, and it never again will be," says John Enck of the Gartner Group. "There is no conceivable way that Dell can significantly outgrow the market as a whole "

This seems stunningly dumb to me. Sure, the PC business is not a growth market today. At the same time, can we all agree that the PC is a pretty neat invention? Can we all agree that the "sleeping Tigers" of Asia have huge pent-up market demand for PCs? Okay, so they're still in the tire-kicking stage of the PC market in China and feel the need to "get their hands on" the machines ahead of time. Once the masses understand the value of PCs, is there any reason to believe that Direct from Dell can't work there as well? What's more, could other PC companys like HP and Lenovo be so crazy as to be building reseller channels for PCs in these countries?

Doesn't make Dell a "buy" today, but also doesn't mean the PC market will "never again" be a growth market.